Data Analysts Calculate Every Club’s Chance of Winning 26/27 Premier League
Data Analysts Calculate Every Club’s Chance of Winning 26/27 Premier League
10-12 minutes
The new campaign is now just a few days away. It kicks off on Friday, August 21, when reigning champions Arsenal welcome newly-promoted Coventry City to the Emirates Stadium.
The Gunners, who demolished Manchester City 3-0 to win the Community Shield, will be hoping they can retain their title.
Ahead of the new season, stats gurus Football Meets Data has calculated every side’s chance of lifting the trophy when the 2026/27 campaign concludes on Sunday, May 30, 2027.
20-11 (>1%)
David Moyes via Reuters
Leicester City’s miraculous Premier League triumph in the 2015/16 campaign shows that any team in English football can shock the world and lift the trophy against all odds.
Championship playoff winners Hull City have been given a miniscule 0.1% chance, as have Championship winners Coventry City and Sunderland.
The Black Cats have been given such a low chance despite finishing 7th in the 2025/26 campaign and qualifying for the UEFA Europa League.
Ipswich Town, who will be managed by Gary O’Neil this season following Kieran McKenna’s departure, have a 0.2% chance. Fulham have a 0.3% chance of becoming English champions for the first time, with Leeds and Crystal Palace (both 0.4%) following.
Nottingham Forest, now managed by Oliver Glasner, have been given a 0.6% chance of glory, the same as Keith Andrews’ Brentford. While nine-time English champions Everton have been given a 0.8% chance of winning the title.
Every Premier League Club’s Chance of Winning the Trophy in 2026/27
Rank
Club
Chance (%)
20
Hull City
0.1
19
Coventry City
0.1
18
Sunderland
0.1
17
Ipswich Town
0.2
16
Fulham
0.3
15
Leeds United
0.4
14
Crystal Palace
0.4
13
Nottingham Forest
0.6
12
Brentford
0.6
11
Everton
0.8
10-1 (<1%)
Arsenal's Martin Odegaard lifts the trophy as he celebrates with teammates after winning the FA Community Shield Action Images via Reuters/Matthew Childs
Bournemouth surprised everyone by finishing sixth in 2025/26, which was enough to see them qualify for Europe for the first time in their 127-year history.
Andoni Iraola, the man who masterminded that success, has since left for Liverpool and been replaced by Marco Rose. The Cherries have a 1% chance of taking another major leap forward and becoming champions.
Brighton have a 1.3% chance, just less than Roberto De Zerbi's Tottenham Hotspur, who have spent a huge amount of money in the summer transfer window after nearly being relegated last campaign.
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Chelsea, now under the management of Xabi Alonso, have a 2.8 chance of winning the Premier League. They are sandwiched inbetween Newcastle (1.8% chance) and Aston Villa (3.7%).
Manchester United will be looking to end their wait for a Premier League trophy this season. With Michael Carrick at the helm, they arguably have their best chance (5.1%) of doing that in some time.
Liverpool were incredibly disappointing in 2025/26. They were widely expected to retain their title but finished a distant 25 points behind Arsenal in fifth. Iraola's side have a 7.9% chance of glory this campaign.
City have the second-best chance (23.2%) to lift the trophy, with Arsenal the overwhelming favourites. The Gunners have a whopping 48.1% chance of being crowned Premier League champions once again in May 2027.
Every Premier League Club's Chance of Winning the Trophy in 2026/27
Rank
Club
Chance (%)
10
Bournemouth
1.0
9
Brighton
1.3
8
Tottenham Hotspur
1.6
7
Newcastle United
1.8
6
Chelsea
2.8
5
Aston Villa
3.7
4
Manchester United
5.1
3
Liverpool
7.9
2
Manchester City
23.2
1
Arsenal
48.1
